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期货

Tradable Events this Week


1. Data Dump

The week kicks off with a flood of data from both the Eurozone and the U.S while the currency market finds itself at an inflection point. The Dollar Index traded to and closed at the highest level since the first week of April. On the flip side the Euro traded to and closed at the lowest level in the same period. The 90 benchmark in the Dollar Index is a psychological level in which it has struggled mightily to hold since breaking down through in January; major three-star resistance comes in at 90.49-90.79. Economic data from the U.S has not given true support to the Dollar; the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index is at the lowest level since the start of Q4 2017. In fact, it has retreated from a six year high above 80 to near 20. These data points have more or less been a battle of the best house on a bad block with its Euro counterpart. Our motto is; if you get the Dollar right, you will get a lot of things right. Tomorrow morning, regional PMIs from France are due at 2:00 am CT and Germany at 2:30. The Eurozone read is at 3:00 am CT. From the U.S, we have the same trio of PMIs (Manufacturing, Markit Composite and Services) at 8:45 am CT. Existing Home Sales data is due at 9:00 am CT. German Ifo Business Sentiment is due on Tuesday; this will be a key read after Consumer Sentiment last week was the worst since 2012. From the U.S on Tuesday is Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales. This two-day stretch will be absolutely critical in confirming or denying the price action to finish last week and ahead of Thursday’s ECB and BoJ meetings as well as the first look at U.S Q1 GDP on Friday.

 

2. Stocks Slipping

The S&P finished 1.7% from its high on the week while the NQ 2.8% from its. After a strong start on Monday and Tuesday came on the lowest volume stretch of the year, the fickle market turned south. Adding to pressure was a surge in yields; the 10-year Treasury hit the highest level since 2014. This weakness also points to profit taking ahead of the heart of earnings season. The tech sector must show up this week and once again become a leader in order for the recent rally to remain constructive; Google is due Monday after the bell, Facebook Wednesday and Amazon Thursday. In addition, Boeing, 3M, Caterpillar, Verizon, AT&T, Comcast, Exxon and others are also due this week. Major banks posted great earnings, but the crowded sector incurred a wave of profit taking directly after. On Friday, this profit taking showed signs of being over as the XLF finished +0.11% when the rest of the market was down. Earnings are the lifeblood of stocks and we now look to a crucial line in the sand for the S&P at 2654.75 in order to keep this recent uptrend intact.

 

3. Central Banks

The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan separately meet and conclude with monetary policy decisions on Thursday (U.S hours). In January, both central banks laid the groundwork for tightening policy later this year. Since, each has danced with comments from officials or tweaks to the policy statement. Expectations for any further changes this week are extremely low and because of this, the door is now open for an upside surprise in their respective currencies. Our focus this week is most closely on the ECB. In our first Tradable Event above, we pointed to poor data from both the U.S and Eurozone. This signals that weakness in the Euro is at least partly due to dovish expectations for this week’s meetings. When coupled with an over-extended net-long position, you get the 1% slip that took place in the back half of last week. Price action traded to a low of 1.2299 and we have major three-star support at 1.2254-1.22765. If there is any scent of a hawkish surprise, it is likely that we see a sharp rip higher.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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固定收益

Rareview - At What Level Does the Fed Stop?


This week, the flatness of the US yield curve began to invert in a pronounced way across several forward points.

It is becoming increasingly likely that the slope of the yield curve will reach zero around the June FOMC meeting. Currently, the market is priced for the 100% certainty of an interest rate hike at the June meeting. Any interest rate hikes beyond that, which are already priced in the market at 75% or greater, will invert the yield curve.

Below is a chart of the 5/10 US OIS curve, 6 months forward. As you can see, for the first time in this cycle it began to invert earlier this week. A variety of other curves, including the 2/10 curve, will invert about the same time. Sidebar: While many look at the yield curve through the lens of 2/10 or 5/30, we grew up with 5/10’s because it is the purest representation of the Fed’s relative stance of tightness or easiness.

 

Ultimately, this reinforces our view that this cycle’s neutral Fed funds rate is about 1.75%. It is 1.69% today and will go beyond that at the next meeting.

The only question remaining to ask for a fixed income investor is at what level does the Fed stop? Right now, the market is priced for 4 more interest rate hikes to 2.75%. Our guess has been 2.25% or 2.5%, but it is only a guess.

In this same spirit, the flat level of the yield curve has become a topic of conversation for Fed policymakers. After all, they get briefed twice a day on the forwards, too.

As a reminder, this began but was dismissed by most at the time, back on March 5th, when the San Francisco Fed released this paper on yield curve inversion. We showcased it in these pages on that day. The significance is that the San Francisco Fed is typically known as the research division of the Fed – it produces the most working papers of any division – and its President, John Williams, is Powell’s “economic study buddy.”

The crux of the paper, which was written by a member of the San Francisco’s Fed research division who helped pioneer the now infamous “r*”, suggested that combining the flat level of the yield curve with other asset valuations, suggested that the probability of a recession was either at or near a critical threshold that would suggest a recession was on the horizon within the next 6 to 24 months. For those who haven’t been following closely, the yield curve is 20 bps flatter than when that paper was released.

No less than five Fed policymakers in the last week, including San Francisco Fed President John Williams, the current mouthpiece for the Fed, have stated that either an inverted yield curve would either make them consider stop raising interest rates, or induce them to stop altogether. It is no coincidence to us that Williams’ comments on Wednesday, following nine straight days of flattening in the 5/30 curve, coincided with a bottoming in the flattening pressure.

But we would note that if what the policymakers have said is true, this concept will be put to the test at the September meeting. Knowing that, it calls for any short fixed income expressions to have an upside hedge after the June meeting.

Finally, we point you to today’s sight beyond sight.

Last night, the following story titled, “White House Officials See More Labor Market Slack Than Fed Does,” was released.

Here is what Kevin Hassett, Chairman of President Donald Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, said regarding joblessness:

“I’m not sure full employment is one number,” Hassett told a conference sponsored by the Institute of International Finance on Thursday in Washington, adding, “I think it could be in the 3’s now.”

Here is what Mark Calabria, Vice President Mike Pence’s chief economist, said regarding joblessness:

There is “obviously a very vigorous debate about -- are we at full employment? Is there room for the labor market to grow?,” Calabria told the Global Finance Forum in Washington. “It is certainly our belief that there are a tremendous amount of people on the sidelines, for a variety of reasons.”

The key point here is two-fold:

  1. The White House, specifically the person who briefs President Trump on the economy, is saying that below 4% may be equivalent to full employment now. The latest unemployment rate is 4.1%, the same level it has been for six months in a row.
  1. Larry Kudlow, Director of the National Economic Council under US President Donald Trump, was vocal on trade tariffs. The risk is that he is even more vocal on curtailing future interest rate hikes and uses what the White House believes to be NAIRU (i.e., sub-4%) as the reasoning.

The sight beyond sight is to watch out for this narrative to show up in any “Fed-speak.”

Why? Because that would argue for a slower path of interest rate hikes or remove some of the euphoria around wage inflation.

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To see the remainder of today's edition, please sign up for a subscription to Sight Beyond Sight through Interactive Brokers.

Sight Beyond Sight® is a global macro trading newsletter written daily by Neil Azous. With close to two decades of institutional experience across asset classes, Neil interprets the day-to-day economic, policy and strategy developments and provides actionable trading ideas for investors. We invite clients of Interactive Brokers to sign up for a free trial in Account Management. If you are not a client of IB, you can sign up for a free trial by visiting our website.

This article is from Rareview Macro and is being posted with Rareview Macro’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Rareview Macro and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


17476




宏观分析

Interactive Brokers - Tesla Stock in Recovery as New DRIV ETF Throws a Spotlight on Emerging New Autos


Investors are generally keeping a close watch on advancements in the connected, electric and autonomous car sphere as technology increasingly disrupts the traditional automotive industry.

IHS Markit noted that by 2023, global sales of connected cars will surge more than 202% over an eight-year period to reach 72.5 million units. That means almost 69% of passenger vehicles sold will be exchanging data with external sources, bringing new services and business models to bear in the auto sector.

Moreover, IHS Markit said sales of self-driving cars will jettison to 21 million in 2035, up from nearly 600,000 units in 2025. Between now and 2035, an estimated 76 million vehicles with some level of autonomy will be sold globally.

Analysts at Franklin Templeton noted: “Investors are starting to understand that technology is playing an increasingly important role in the global economy, and we think the sector’s long-term fundamentals are positive. We have seen a big-picture trend of digital transformation—which encompasses areas including artificial intelligence (AI), cloud computing, software-as-a-service and robotics—growing across the economy.

“The digital transformation appears to be gaining momentum, even as certain companies experience growing pains.”

Despite Tesla’s (TSLA) fatal Model X car crash in late March, for example, the company’s stock is back on an upswing. The share price has recovered nearly 19% from its recent low of roughly US$252.50 set on April 2. To date, the company’s stock has also maintained positive momentum in terms of relative value compared to the First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto Index Fund (CARZ) – despite continued suffering from the grips of its own death cross.

Tesla was trading up on the day Thursday by almost 2.3%, while traditional automakers General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) fell by 2.8% and 1.8% intraday, respectively.

The popularity of electric, connected and driverless cars has also recently spurred New York-based ETF provider Global X Funds (PAVE), to introduce the listing of the Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF (DRIV).

The ETF, launched April 17, was designed to track the Solactive Autonomous & Electric Vehicles Index, and holds a basket of companies involved in the production or development of electric vehicles (EVs) and autonomous vehicles (AVs), including Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Apple (AAPL), NVIDIA (NVDA) and Samsung (005930).

Jonathan Curtis, vice president and research analyst with Franklin Equity Group, said while temporary “blips” affecting certain stocks are par for the course as consumers get used to new technologies—and how they impact our lives—he sees the overall long-term fundamental backdrop for the sector as sound.

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Steven Levine has served as a senior reporter on the fixed income and corporate credit markets for more than seven years. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, he acted as a journalist and editor at Connectivity Business, served as a senior fixed income reporter for Deutsche Börse-owned Market News International (MNI), and performed risk management in the financial services industry at DTCC, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase & Co.

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


17477




期权

Interactive Brokers - Options Traders Respond to Alcoa's Earnings as Aluminum Supply Concerns Mount


US sanctions and trade-related tariffs have triggered uncertainties over the production and supply of aluminum, sparking a rise in both the price of the metal and Alcoa’s earnings guidance.

With US sanctions imposed on Russian aluminum giant Rusal (RUSAL) earlier in April – preventing the metal producer from selling its commodity – global demand has turned its attention to Pittsburgh-based Alcoa to help fill in the gap.

For the first quarter of 2018, the US-based aluminum producer earned US$0.77 per share, beating analysts’ estimates for US$0.70, and generated around US$3.1bn in revenues, about on par with expectations.

Alcoa also updated its full-year outlook for adjusted EBITDA to a range between US$3.5bn-3.7bn, from the prior quarter’s US$2.6bn-2.8bn, due to recent “favorable market conditions”.

The company further pointed to a global deficit for both aluminum and alumina in 2018, primarily due to delays in projects to expand smelters in China, as well as supply disruptions in the Atlantic region.

The company underscored that considerable “uncertainty remains in the global supply chain due to multiple trade actions, sanctions, and supply disruptions.”

Against this landscape, leveraged options buyers have been placing short- to medium-term bullish bets on Alcoa, with many swooping into the May 18 60-strike call. Open interest, or the number of established but not closed option positions, on this particular call contract outweighs puts by a factor of roughly 8:5.

Speculators have flooded the contract following the firm’s upbeat earnings, as well as amid news of the US sanctions on Rusal, spurring the potential for increased global demand.

Alcoa’s stock had surged around 8% on the earnings report and had soared more than 41% in April to an intraday high Thursday of roughly US$62.10. Since mid-January 2016, the company’s share price has climbed over 311%, maintaining its positive momentum from posting a golden cross in mid-April of the same year. Alcoa’s stock has also outpaced the iShares Dow Jones US Basic Materials ETF (IYM) by a wide margin.

As Alcoa’s share price has risen, so has the level of open interest on the May 18 60-strike call. After one week prior to the company’s earnings release, the number of open interest contracts shot up from a paltry 129 to around 4.4k one day before the announcement and then to roughly 7.5k post-earnings.

Meanwhile, as earnings season winds down, Alcoa’s stock performance will likely be subject to increased sensitivity from macro headlines – along with the broader market. While Alcoa was last quoted down about 2.25% on the day Friday to US$58.80 – pushing those call contracts currently out the money – leveraged options traders appear to be ignoring any potential recessionary / inflation signals and sticking with the company – still seeing it as a safe bet.

While the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) was recently up about 1% Friday, it had only reached a level of 16.35 – a decline of nearly 57% since early February. Aluminum rose roughly 6.4% on the day Thursday to an intraday high of 2,559 before shedding around 2% of those gains ahead of the weekend.

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Steven Levine has served as a senior reporter on the fixed income and corporate credit markets for more than seven years. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, he acted as a journalist and editor at Connectivity Business, served as a senior fixed income reporter for Deutsche Börse-owned Market News International (MNI), and performed risk management in the financial services industry at DTCC, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase & Co.

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


17478




宏观分析

Real Vision TV - What Will Come Of The Facebook Scandal?


Roger McNamee, who manages private equity firm Elevation Partners with U2’s Bono and other investors, was an earlier mentor to Mark Zuckerberg and one of Facebook's earliest investors.


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披露

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