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宏观分析

GUOSEN Closing Bell (July 13)


MARKET

China stocks were mixed after the close on Friday, the Shanghai Composite lost 0.22%, while the SZSE Component index added 0.57%; In Shanghai sector, as gains in the Travel & Leisure, Technology Hardware & Equipment and Technology sectors led shares higher while losses in the Banking, Financials and Oil Equipment Services & Distribution sectors led shares lower. In total, both markets traded 366.1 billion RMB, up 9.75% dod.

 

 

Open

Close

% Change

(bn yuan)

Shanghai

2831.18

-0.23

146.30

-14.39

Shenzhen

9326.97

0.58

219.72

-15.52

CSI 300

3492.69

0.33

99.80

-13.35

ChiNext

1618.46

0.24

86.90

-7.66

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Food & Beverage

000596

Healthcare

002653

Downward-leading

Shipbuilding

600150

Textile machinery

600843

 

NEWS

*China's central SOEs deliver strong performance in H1

China's centrally-administered state-owned enterprises (SOEs) reported fast profit growth in the first half of the year with a lower debt-asset ratio, data showed Thursday. Combined profits of China's central SOEs totaled 887.79 billion yuan (133.1 billion U.S. dollars) in H1, up 23 percent from a year earlier, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) said. The growth rate was 2.1 percentage points higher than the pace in Q1. (Sina)

*Globalized investment to China is bullish: Standard Chartered

The survey in March gathered responses from over 180 investors, regulators and custodians in Asia, Europe and North America, gauging their views on issues impacting investors wanting to access China's onshore markets. Eighty-eight percent of the interviewed investors said they were currently investing in China, up from 69 percent in 2017. Among those investing in China, 76 percent said they would increase their China investments, up from 69 percent in 2017. Simplicity, clarity and flexibility of new access mechanisms such as Stock Connect and Bond Connect were the main reasons for the positive sentiment.Over three quarters of the respondents said that the new channels have greatly influenced their decision to increase their investment. When considering future investment, 43 percent plan to use Stock Connect and 23 percent Bond Connect. (Xinhua)

 

FUND FLOW

 

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This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19090




宏观分析

Interactive Brokers - Examining the Differences Between Tesla's Equity and Bond Prices


Interactive Brokers chief options strategist Steve Sosnick discusses what investors might be reading into the difference between Tesla's equity and bond prices.

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19061




技术分析

ChartSmarter - ChartSmarter Friday Game Plan 7/13/18


Markets:

Do not look now but the Nasdaq is back above the round 7800 number, more importantly on a CLOSING basis, something it was unable to do on the 6/20-21 sessions. The latter finished nearly 100 handles off its intraday high. It now negates the bearish engulfing candle from from that 6/21 day, and bulls are feeling energized. Their is truth in PRICE, and as good as it looks I would still like to witness a couple of CLOSES above 7800. I am giving my own healthy skepticism, which is probably a very good contrarian sign that we are going higher.


The S&P 500 is has now gained ground 8 of the last 10 sessions and the last 6 advancing days CLOSED right at the top of the daily range. The most hated bull market keeps moving right along ignoring all opinions. It is looking to finish above the round 2800 number for the first time since 2/1, and the action since the beginning of February can now be interpreted as a bullish ascending triangle and a move through 2800 carries a measured move to 3050.
Sectors:

Technology was a welcome winner Thursday. The XLK rose by 1.6% and is now just above a 72.53 short cup base trigger. The very tight ranges the first three days of the week we mentioned yesterday, could well have been a short rest to gather stamina and resume its uptrend. Volume is still a bit on the light side, but the ETF is up 2.2% this week heading into Friday and looking for its second consecutive 2% plus weekly gain as it jumped 2.3% the prior week.


It is still a bit premature to declare the staples and utilities as lagging. But this is another session were the were the worst performers of the major S&P sectors. The XLP and XLU were very close to the UNCH mark Thursday. The XLP is at a critical juncture here as it sits right at 200 day SMA resistance, a line it has been below for 5 months with the exception of a couple days in February that proved to be a bull trap.

Special Situations:

The economy continues to chug along and of course there will always be arguments on both sides of its merit. The quote from Ralph Waldo Emerson comes to mind, “There are always two parties, the establishment and the movement.” Perhaps the naysayers, I am not in the camp, could point to the strength in the chart below of KAR, a used car auctioneer. This is how is was presented in our Tuesday 7/10 Game Plan. It is on a 6 session winning streak, with each day CLOSING right at the top of the daily range, a hallmark bullish trait. A cup base trigger of 56.85 was taken out on 7/9 and it is demonstrating great action POST breakout, just what you want to see from fledging breakouts. Is the firmness in the stock an indication of the reluctance to purchase new vehicles? From a trading perspective who cares. The chart is driving higher, pun intended.

ChartSmarter is a website dedicated to the art of technical analysis. We focus on both daily and weekly timeframes with a strong emphasis on Japanese candlesticks. Incorporated into our work is the use of traditional technical strategies such as head and shoulders, triangles, gap fills and round number theory. Inside each daily report we highlight 5 names on both the long/short side depending on the overall market conditions. 

The author has worked within the financial industry for more than 25 years, but for the last 8 has centered in primarily of trading capital using technical analysis.

The opinions expressed by the author are his own. Trades or positions discussed by the author are neither a solicitation to buy or sell a security, nor are they investment advice. Recipients should always do their own due diligence before buying or selling a security. Every reader is responsible for his/her decision to buy or sell a security.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from ChartSmarter and is being posted with ChartSmarter’s permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or ChartSmarter and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


19075




期权

Barron's - The Striking Price - How to Play a Chinese Stock Rebound - By Gunjan Banerji


Alibaba Group Holding stock has fallen 10% from its recent record high as investors ditched it and shares of other Chinese companies amid an intensifying trade dispute. But options investors don’t seem to be fazed by the recent slump.

Weighing the final impact of any trade retaliatory measures is challenging. Tariffs can be specific and hard to predict or so wide-ranging as to disturb even swaths of the market like small-cap stocks that have remained isolated.

The uncertainty has meant the market has fluctuated between ignoring trade fights and appearing to rise and fall in line with headlines on tariffs. Even with the prospect of intensifying trade conflicts on Monday, the Shanghai Composite recorded its biggest one-day point gain since February, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished its best day in about a month.

On Wednesday, that quickly turned as stocks around the world sank, following President Donald Trump’s promise to slap an additional 10% tariff on $200 billion in Chinese goods spanning tech gear to furniture and handbags.

Amid the volatility, the Shanghai Composite entered bear-market territory—down by roughly 20% since January’s high—and major U.S. indexes remain unsettled.

Some say that it’s time to position for a rebound in the American depositary receipts of Chinese companies like Alibaba (ticker: BABA) or internet play Sina (SINA), which have slid over the past month, as earnings approach.

Despite the recent swoon, some options traders appear bullish on Alibaba, which is poised to report earnings in August.

An options measure called “skew,” which gauges how expensive it is to protect against stock declines, is near a year-long low for Alibaba shares, Trade Alert data as of Thursday show. That indicates that traders may not be rushing to shield their stock positions, and girding for a steeper fall in Alibaba. A ratio of bearish put options versus bullish call options is also below average, according to Trade Alert. Put options confer the right to sell stock at a designated date and price, known as a “strike.” Call option contracts give investors the right to buy shares at such a strike price.

Analysts are forecasting earnings per share for Alibaba to jump to $1.30 in its first quarter, up 11% from the same period the prior year, FactSet data show. They’re also girding for sales to jump.

Investors could tap so-called bullish call spreads on Alibaba shares to position for a rebound, says Jim Strugger, a derivatives strategist at MKM Partners. This would entail purchasing a call option tied to Alibaba stock hitting $200, about 5% above where it is now, while simultaneously selling one tied to the e-commerce giant breaching $220. The two-part trade, which would cost $365 to execute, would pay off when the shares rose above the $200 mark.

At that point, investors could buy 100 shares of Alibaba at $200 for $20,000 and sell them at the current trading level, pocketing the profit or holding them for the long term.

Investors also often buy options contracts and sell them before expiration to cash in on their appreciated value rather than exercising them and buying the underlying shares.

If the investor is right about the direction of Alibaba stock and it goes up, the options would start to rise in value. Rather than exercising the options at expiration, the investor could opt to sell the options in the market instead.

Investors could also tap call options on Sina that expire in August. It would cost $215 for the right to purchase 100 shares of the company if they rose 6.5%, to $90, by then. The stock has slid 10.25% over the past month.

If the stock doesn’t cross $90, the entire investment is lost. If they rise above that, investors could purchase the shares at $90, the strike price, and sell them at their current trading level, pocketing the profit—or hold on to them for the long term.

Sina is expected to report in August.

Gunjan Banerji covers options for The Wall Street Journal.

Get investing analysis that moves stocks and markets—Subscribe to Barron’s for just $1 a week.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Barron's and is being posted with Barron’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Barron's and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19074




固定收益

Invesco - Five Risks That Could Affect Fixed Income Markets


Macro and credit fundamentals look strong, but greater volatility appears likely

Invesco Fixed Income is positive on fundamentals for the rest of this year. Global growth is solid and inflation is tame. As central banks have pivoted away from stimulus, tighter financial conditions have hurt risky assets. But major central bank policies are still generally easy — we expect the Federal Reserve to tighten gradually, and the runway for other central banks to normalize policy is still long. Nevertheless, political uncertainty, trade tensions and a sell-off in emerging markets have challenged investors in recent months. We expect these factors to generate further volatility and believe caution is warranted. However, we believe greater volatility will generate new opportunities for fixed income investors against a backdrop of solid macro and credit fundamentals. Below are five risks we are monitoring.

1. Tightening financial conditions

Global financial conditions have tightened modestly this year due to the tapering of quantitative easing in the US, increasing interest rates globally and a retreat from the synchronized growth we experienced in 2017. Because inflation remains low, we expect global central banks to tighten policy at a restrained pace. This should contribute to a stabilization of financial conditions as the year progresses and should be positive for risky assets. Investors should be cautious, however, because if inflation accelerates, monetary policy could become more aggressive. This could result in a sharp tightening of financial conditions which could disrupt markets. Increased trade tensions may also generate unanticipated tightening.

2. Increasing trade friction

Trade rhetoric and actions have been contentious between the US and its major trading partners. Although a political compromise is possible, a broad and drawn-out “trade war” is a risk, and the events of recent weeks have increased the likelihood we see further escalation.

Risks associated with protectionism, such as reduced global trade, could negatively impact global growth and inflation. In the US, aggressive tariff hikes would likely result in higher inflation. However, this inflation would probably be temporary, more akin to a tax increase than the demand-driven type of inflation that monetary policymakers are seeking. We believe most of the impact on growth due to increased tariffs would depend on the extent of deterioration in market conditions. A trade shock combined with a sharp market sell-off is much more likely to generate a poor growth outcome than a trade shock alone, in our view.

In Europe, we see potential downside risks to the eurozone economy as more significant if sectors such as car imports are targeted. In China, we believe negotiation (rather than retaliation) is preferred by the Chinese government. As China further opens its domestic market, lowers trade tariffs and improves intellectual property rights protection, there is more room for dialogue with the US, in our view. However, we remain mindful there could be ongoing uncertainty regarding US trade policy. In recent weeks, we have seen surprise actions on the part of US President Donald Trump’s administration related to new tariffs and we may see more as we approach this year’s US midterm elections. In addition, China is determined to pursue its “Made in China 2025” strategy to advance its global competitiveness in technology and manufacturing. The Trump administration has reportedly demanded that China stop subsidizing high-technology industries under this initiative. It may be very difficult to close the gap between the two countries on this issue.

3. European politics

Eurozone political headlines have been focused on two key countries. In Italy, a new populist coalition government has been formed, and in Germany, the ruling coalition parties are battling internal disagreements. In addition to these headlines, politics have been eventful across the continent — strikes in France in response to  President Emmanuel Macron’s reform agenda, a new government in Spain, and of course, Brexit in the UK.

Several big questions remain unanswered. Will political uncertainty lead to a meaningful loss of confidence among businesses and consumers? Will domestic political agendas prevent further strengthening of eurozone institutions? And will financial markets require more risk premiums if uncertainty is higher, potentially derailing the strong recovery we have been experiencing?

Our central view is the difficult issues will ultimately be resolved in a positive manner — the Italian coalition delivers on objectives in a way that is in the spirit of the eurozone budgetary framework, a compromise solution is found to immigration challenges to calm disagreements in Germany and beyond, and a Brexit agreement is ultimately reached. However, it is clear the risks have gone up.

Because central banks are reaching the end of their stimulus programs, they are less apt to provide a backstop if things go wrong, leaving markets more nervous. We think this may present buying opportunities for active managers, as markets may overreact as they struggle to discount low probability but high-impact events.

4. China economics and policy

China’s goal to reorient its economy away from export-led growth toward more domestically oriented drivers is a major challenge. The process of transition from a largely command-driven economy to a more market-oriented one could lead to policy missteps and market disruption.1 While the government has successfully stabilized past periods of heavy capital outflows and renminbi volatility through various monetary and regulatory measures, the possibility of a surge in outflows and currency pressure remains a concern. Such moves could be destabilizing to China’s economy and global financial markets. Most recently, the government has focused on lowering financial risk, seeking to reduce leverage across many sectors of the economy. Tighter regulation of financial companies (especially the “shadow” banking sector) has restricted lending, leading to a slowdown in credit creation. While this has resulted in a moderate economic slowdown, the government has stated its preference for “quality” over “quantity” of growth.

We are watching for signs of more than a moderate economic slowdown as the government balances tighter financial regulation with offsetting injections of liquidity into the system. A resumption of pressure on capital flows or the currency would also likely be negative for markets. But our central case is for general stability in growth and financial indicators in the near term.

5. Emerging market politics and policy

The risks to emerging markets (EM) are largely related to political uncertainties, and to a lesser extent, sensitivity to rising US interest rates and dollar strength. The conventional wisdom suggests that EM is highly vulnerable during periods when the US dollar and US rates rise. Indeed, EM countries are reliant on external funding — primarily in US dollars. However, EM as an asset class has not always struggled during periods of rising US rates and a rising dollar; during 2004 to 2006, EM assets performed well even while suffering through the initial rise in US rates in early 2004. Additionally, most countries have more than sufficient liquid external dollar assets to fund external liabilities coming due over the next year. Two exceptions are Argentina and Turkey, whose fixed income markets and currencies have exhibited considerable market volatility in recent weeks. Argentina has since agreed to a standby arrangement with the International Monetary Fund which, if it conforms to program requirements, should provide sufficient external funding for the country through 2019. Turkey has thus far resorted to raising policy rates in an attempt to stabilize the currency.

Selectivity is key

Uncertainty surrounding the impact of various EM elections (such as those recently held in Turkey and Mexico, with Brazilian elections scheduled for October) will be a market focus for the rest of the year. The concern is that, in each case, policy may be oriented in a less market-friendly, more interventionist direction. This could lead to more volatility in asset prices. In fact, measures of political risk in EM are generally on the rise. Therefore, we are becoming more selective, taking a wait-and-see approach to countries whose election outcomes may lead to less market-friendly policies. We currently favor markets of countries where we see positive fundamentals, a lack of domestic political uncertainties and compelling valuations.

1 Source: The Brookings Institution, China’s economy and financial markets: Reforms and risks, Eswar Prasad, April 27, 2016

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披露

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盈透交易员睿智中提供的内容(包括文章和评论)仅作为资讯用途。发布的内容并不代表盈透证券建议您或您的客户联系独立顾问或对冲基金以期获取其服务或投资其产品,也不代表建议您联系在盈透交易员睿智发布文章或向顾问、对冲基金投资的相关人士。在盈透交易员睿智中发布文章的顾问、对冲基金或其他分析师均独立于盈透,盈透证券不会对这些顾问、对冲基金和其他人士的过往或将来表现,或其提供的信息之准确性做任何声明或担保。盈透证券不会进行“适宜性评估”来确保顾问、对冲基金或其他参与方的交易是否适合于您。

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